President Donald Trump recently set a clear timeline for one of the most widely discussed ideas of the year: the proposed “tariff dividend” checks. From the Resolute Desk, he announced that Americans could begin receiving $2,000 payments as early as mid-2026. He described the plan as a direct way to provide financial relief to working- and middle-class households, funded entirely through revenue collected from tariffs under his trade policies.

It was his most definitive statement so far, but questions surfaced immediately. The biggest uncertainty was whether the plan could actually move forward.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed that concern directly. He explained that the payments cannot happen unless Congress approves them. Lawmakers would need to create and pass legislation authorizing the checks, and at this stage, it is unclear whether Congress is prepared to support a new large-scale payment program. Some members appear open to the idea, others are cautious, and some are openly hesitant about approving major payouts during an election cycle.

Early cost estimates add another layer of complication. The program could exceed $200 billion if the checks are issued to individuals rather than households, even with income limits in place. That figure is far higher than projected tariff revenue for 2025 and would take up nearly half of the expected tariff revenue for 2026. As a result, the numbers only work if tariff revenue grows significantly, if Congress approves additional borrowing, or if spending is reduced in other areas.

Continue reading on the next page…